Shockers might have been champions in 2014

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The upcoming college basketball season is shaping up to be the year of the blue blood. Arizona, Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State all return key veterans and add five star freshmen.

But Wichita State is primed to crash the party.

The Shockers bring back multiple stars, have a fantastic defense, and are an elite shooting team. That’s a safer and better formula than anyone else has to offer in the preseason.

Everyone’s back

The Shockers ended last season ranked No. 8 on KenPom. After struggling in the non conference, Wichita State thrashed Illinois State and knocked off a very good Dayton team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Before falling to Kentucky by just three points in the round of 32, the Shockers had won 17 straight games.

Wichita State returns all five starters from that team. Among those who played at least 35 percent of WSU’s minutes, everyone but Daishon Smith returns.

Arizona, Duke, and Kansas all lose a ton of talent. Arizona has to replace Lauri Markkanen, Kobi Simmons and Chance Comanche. The Blue Devils are out Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum, Amile Jefferson, Frank Jackson, Matt Jones, Harry Giles and Chase Jeter. And the Jayhawks have to replace Frank Mason, Josh Jackson, Landen Lucas, and Carlton Bragg. Yes, these teams are all adding five star freshmen. Unfortunately for them, they are still freshmen and we know the players they lost were all reliable.

Michigan State did not lose much, but the Spartans were 20 15 last year. They finished No. 40 on KenPom. Kansas blew them off the court in the NCAA Tournament. Miles Bridges was excellent last season. But the Spartans were far closer to missing the NCAA Tournament than being a championship contender.

The 2020 version of Arizona, Duke, and Kansas might beat Wichita State’s 2020 squad. By then, players will have developed into what makes them lottery picks. But the big four won’t get any points for what their players will be at 21. The Shockers do, though. Conner Frankamp is five years removed from high school, Shaq Morris is finally in his last year of eligibility https://www.dukebluedevilsjersey.com...rsey-c-15.html, and Markis McDuffie is playing his third season after being a four star recruit.

Then there’s Landry Shamet. The 6’4 point guard orchestrated the No. 13 offense in the country last year. That mark was 54 spots higher than Fred VanVleet’s 2015 2016 squad. Shamet finished 18th among qualified players in offensive ranking on KenPom. He averaged 1.14 points per possession, which put him in the 97th percentile, according to Synergy Sports.

As a 44 percent three point shooter with a quick motion, opponents always had to respect his ability to pull up from anywhere. Put that all together, and he finished in the 89th percentile per synergy as a pick and roll ball handler

Shamet is a better bet than any of the point guards running blue blood teams. Devonte’ Graham has been a phenomenal two guard at Kansas, but Elijah Johnson can attest that running the offense is different. Parker Jackson Cartwright is dependable as a lead guard, but he has a 15 percent usage rate. When Arizona needs a basket, he’s not going to take over games.

Whether Michigan State starts Tum Tum Nairn or someone else, the Spartans will also rely on wings to win games. And Duke needs five star freshman Trevon Duval to be ready now. And whether he’s ready to run a college offense and space the floor is a big issue.

The defense will remain elite

The Shockers’ defense makes them a safe bet. Wichita State had the No. 13 KenPom defense last season in large part because they had the No. 4 effective field goal defense. Wichita State’s players are tough to get around, and with guys like 6’6 enforcer Zach Brown ready to help, scoring on the Shockers is not easy

Gregg Marshall’s defenses are always good. Beginning with the Final Four season in 2013, here are the Shockers’ KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency rankings 20th, 11th, 15th, 1st and 13th. Last year’s team had to replace VanVleet and Ron Baker. Those were NBA guys and four year contributors. Marshall gets everybody to play defense though, and the results are spectacular

The big four were not as good on defense. Arizona ranked No. 28, Michigan State was No. 38, Duke was No. 47, and Kansas was No. 24.

The Wildcats will be better defensively just by replacing Markkanen. But the Shockers were 15 spots better and had to work through replacing their two best players early in the season. Arizona is unlikely to catch WSU.

There’s no reason to believe Michigan State will catch the Shockers defensively https://www.dukebluedevilsjersey.com...rsey-c-17.html, either. Duke loses a lot so maybe there’s a case it’ll be better, but the Blue Devils have had a top 15 defense one time this decade. With so many new faces, jumping 30 plus spots will be tough. Kansas is likely to play a lot of four out basketball once again with only three traditional big men eligible. The four out offense works https://www.dukebluedevilsjersey.com...rsey-c-14.html, but the Jayhawks finished 24th in defensive efficiency — far lower than the traditional Bill Self team. That happens when teams go small.

Few teams shoot it better

The perennially underseeded Shockers have fallen short in the NCAA Tournament because of bad shooting days. Even the best teams can have that problem during the dance. In their final game in the NCAA Tournament since 2013, from three point range the Shockers have shot 30 percent, 44 percent, 17 percent, 27 percent, and 33 percent from deep. If the Harrison twins Aaron and Andrew hadn’t made every shot for four games, the Shockers might have been champions in 2014. But in the other years Brennan Besser Jersey, the Shockers have struggled to shoot.

The 2017 2018 Shockers should be fantastic from deep. Brown and McDuffie made 34 percent and 35 percent of their triples, respectively. Both players shot a higher percentage last year than the year prior and attempted more shots. There’s a lot of hope for both players to become even better.

Shamet is money from deep. He hit 44 percent of his 160 three point attempts. He ranked in the 95th percentile on Synergy in spot up opportunities. His shot is just too fast for defenders off the dribble

Frankamp is also a knockdown shooter. What seems like a lifetime ago, he made four three pointers in an NCAA Tournament game while teammates with Andrew Wiggins in 2014. He hasn’t stopped making them. He nailed 44 percent of his 163 attempts last season because he’s comfortable from NBA range

Don’t bet against the Shockers
A Final Four coach returns all five starters from the eighth ranked KenPom team. He brings back a top 15 defense, his star point guard, and incredible shooters. If that team isn’t named Wichita State, then it’s probably the consensus No. 1 team to start the season. But this team is named Wichita State.

The Shockers have responded to slights with the motto “watch us.” Those who recognize this may be the best team in the country.

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