TEMPO Interaktif, New Delhi - India diperkirakan bakal menggusur Cina pada 2030 sebagai negara dengan penduduk terbesar sejagat. Perkiraan ini dilandasi angka pertumbuhan penduduk di Negeri Sungai Gangga itu dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir.
Menurut Komisioner Sensus India, C. Chandramouli, jumlah rakyat India meningkat 181 juta dalam satu dekade terakhir.
Saat ini total penduduk India 1,21 miliar, sedang Cina 1,34 miliar. Jumlah warga India ini sama dengan total penduduk Amerika Serikat, Indonesia, Brazil, Jepang, Bangladesh, dan Pakistan.
Namun, menurut Chandramouli, laju pertumbuhan itu paling lambat dalam 90 tahun belakangan. Sebaliknya, angka pertumbuhan di Cina kecil lantaran mereka menerapkan kebijakan cukup satu anak.
TEMPO Interaktif, New Delhi - Dalam tempo 10 tahun lagi, ditaksir India bakal segera menyusul Cina sebagai negara dengan jumlah penduduk terbesar di dunia. Cina saat ini berpenduduk 1,34 miliar jiwa, adapun India 1,21 miliar jiwa. Tak mengherankan bila 17 persen populasi penduduk di dunia adalah orang India. Hal ini terungkap dalam sensus penduduk termutakhir di sana.
"Populasi di India sekarang ini setara dengan jumlah penduduk di Amerika Serikat, Indonesia, Brasil, Jepang, Bangladesh, dan Pakistan," tutur Komisaris Biro Sensus Penduduk India C. Chandramouli. Bayangkan saja, kata dia, di Negara Bagian Uttar Pradesh, jumlah penduduknya nyaris mencapai 200 juta jiwa--sedikit di bawah Indonesia yang 250 juta jiwa.
Sebab itu, Chandramouli menaksir jumlah penduduk India bakal melampaui Cina pada 2030. "India bakal menjadi negara paling padat di dunia," katanya. Meski begitu, ujar Chandramouli, angka pertumbuhan penduduknya menurun dari 21,5 persen menjadi 17,6 persen ketimbang sensus pada 1921.
Ia juga mencatat, sebanyak 800 juta dari 1,21 miliar jiwa di India hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan. "Tapi jumlah warga yang bisa membaca naik dari 65 persen menjadi 74 persen pada responden berumur 7 tahun ke atas," tuturnya. Adapun rasio kelahiran anak berkisar 940 perempuan untuk setiap 1.000 laki-laki. Sensus terakhir rasio bayi laki-laki 933 jiwa.
"Upaya pemerintah dalam 40 tahun terakhir tak berdampak pada rasio seksual anak," ujar Menteri Dalam Negeri India G.K. Pillai. Maklum saja, anak lelaki lebih diminati ketimbang anak perempuan. Alasannya, menikahkan anak perempuan butuh biaya tinggi. Lagi pula, dalam tradisi Hindu di sana, cuma laki-laki yang berhak menggelar upacara kremasi.
ndan, penduduk Cina 1,34 milyar itu cuman hasil tebak-tebakan aja ! Sensus terakhir tahun 2000/2001 nggak selse, jadi pemerintah RRC memperkirakan penduduk berdasarkan sensus tahun 1988/1989 yang ditambahin dgn pertambahan penduduk 2,2 % sampe 2,3 % pertahun.
kebijakan 1 anak juga cuman berlaku di perkotaan aja. di pedesaan diperbolehkan 2 anak. itupun tidak ketat diberlakukan, tergantung kondisi masing2 daerahnya ndan. Dan yg lebih penting lagi kebijakan pembatasan anak itu cuma berlaku buat orang Han aja. Orang2 etnis lain seperti Manzu, Tibet, Uighur, Kazakh, Hui, dsb bebas punya anak berapa aja.
Sept. 1 – The population figure promoted for China that is accepted by the international community and acknowledged by Beijing is 1.3 billion.
This figure has been promoted for some years now. In assessing the reliability of this statistic, we need to look at other factors. The only way Beijing can calculate for this figure accurately is by undertaking a national population census. The last one was undertaken was in 2000/2001. This census was abandoned halfway through as the census takers could not obtain accurate responses, mainly because of distrust as to the actual purpose of the poll.
China’s population therefore continues to be based on the last complete census carried out in the country, which was 19 years ago in 1988/89. The 1.3 billion figure then, as far as we can ascertain, dates back from this census.
We will take an educated guess as to the likely trend that has happened since then. Taking the annual average global population growth figure of about 2.2 to 2.3 percent over a period of 19 years, this may add about 200-300 million Chinese. However, we are unsure how the annual death rate – statistics of which seem to not be available– would affect this estimation. The population growth for countries like Kenya and Philippines is about 4.3 percent, and for most developed countries in Europe about 1.4 percent.
Since 1976, China has adopted a one child policy. Traditionally, the Chinese rural population relies on parents supported by many children to ensure that the family can survive and prosper. Although in recent years, this one child policy has been relaxed in certain areas, it is still in force by legislation in China. This means that parents in rural areas who have more than one child can only legally register the first one. This creates a vast number of unregistered children, who have no legal registration or what is known as a hukou and cannot receive state benefits.
The majority of the illegal migrant population in China’s major cities are known to be unregistered, hence the mobile phone numbers spray painted around cities by dubious agencies and individuals that offer fake documentation to illegal migrants.Although no actual statistics exist, we could surmise a guess and estimate that unregistered post-1976 children amount to as much as 200 – 300 million people.
Therefore if you take the population figure of 1.3 billion, add in the growth since the last full census, plus the possible additional figures for unregistered children – then it could be possible that the population for China today could be anything between 1.8 to 2 billion people.
We would like to emphasize that these figures are from various personal observations and have not been formally evaluated. We accept that some of the factors above may be inaccurate. However, the main point here is that nobody, least of all the Chinese government, knows what the real population of China is today which is most probably higher than the published figure of 1.3 billion.
2nd April 2011
Total Penduduk India Salip Cina Pada 2030
