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2015.02.19 :Forex News: Pound breakout identified, Euro still in a range

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the Fed Meeting Minutes, the pair headed towards 1.1360 and the bears even managed to break this level but the Minutes generated US Dollar weakness and the pair reversed its previous movement.



Technical Outlook
The pair is still ranging and 1.1360 cannot be broken for the time being so the picture remains unclear and the technical side remains secondary to the fundamental as a solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been found yet. The bullish move seen when the FOMC Meeting Minutes came out is not very strong and a reversal could easily occur when and if price hits 1.1440 resistance. Until the mentioned resistance or 1.1360 support is clearly broken the pair will remain in a range.

Fundamental Outlook
The European Central Bank will release today at 12:30 pm GMT their Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. This is a document which contains details about the reasons which influenced their latest interest rate decision and is a practice recently introduced by the ECB. If the document is more hawkish than expected, the Euro will be positively affected.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is the main mover for the US Dollar and is expected to increase from the previous 6.3 to 8.8, a fact which would strengthen the greenback and take the pair lower. The time of the release is 3:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The British unemployment claims were fewer than analysts expected and this was a catalyst for Pound strength during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. The dovish stance of the Fed added to the climb and resistance was clearly broken.



Technical Outlook
Based on yesterday’s bullish movement we consider the minor resistance at 1.5420 to be clearly broken and we expect an extended move into the next resistance level located at 1.5540. However, this does not exclude bearish movement, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to overbought levels; a move below 1.5420 would invalidate the break and would be a sign of bull weakness.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus we expect a day with price action driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

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2015.02.20 :Forex News: The Greek “bubble” is about to burst. Breakout imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday Germany rejected a Greek loan proposal so the Greek debt issue still remains a top priority which needs to be addressed and solved as soon as possible. The U.S. Manufacturing index disappointed and the day was characterized by ranging price action.



Technical Outlook
Lately the pair is bouncing between 1.1440 resistance and 1.1360 support and this behavior is likely to continue until a solution to the Greek issue is found. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average doesn’t do much to show us the next direction as it lacks momentum and a clear angle and the same is true for the Relative Strength Index. The only indicator with some value for recent price action is the Stochastic which follows price pretty accurately so if we were to trust it, we should expect another encounter with the resistance located at 1.1440. A break of 1.1360 would open the door for a touch of 1.1270 support.

Fundamental Outlook
France will release their Manufacturing PMI at 8:00 am GMT, with an expected figure of 49.7. A half an hour later the same indicator but for the German economy is released, with an anticipated value of 51.8; usually if the actual value of these indicators surpasses analysts’ expectations, the Euro is positively affected but sometimes their release goes unnoticed. Special attention must be paid to the Eurogroup meetings as finance ministers and other important figures meet in search of a Greek compromise.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a slow day, mainly because no major British economic news was released and the U.S. indicators failed to create a lot of volatility.



Technical Outlook
Although price broke 1.5420, the bulls failed to capitalize on this break and no major advances were made yesterday. Currently price is testing the recently broken level but the bears are also showing lack of interest or strength as they didn’t manage to take price below the mentioned level. If the test results in a bounce, the first barrier is located at 1.5460 and a more important one at 1.5540. If 1.5420 is broken to the downside, the first support is located at 1.5340 but a lot will depend on the British retail sales data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
The retail sales data mentioned above is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is -0.1%, while last month we saw a 0.4% increase. Since sales made at retail levels represent a hefty part of the entire economic activity, today’s release is considered a high impact event; values above analysts’ expectations are usually beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.23 :Forex News: Market indecision still present. Greece still in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Euro briefly strengthened when news came out that an accord was reached between Greek officials and European finance ministers, but the initial rally was quickly reversed and the ranging period didn’t come to an end.



Technical Outlook
Given the latest developments our view remains neutral on the pair as long as 1.1440 is still resistance and 1.1270 is still support. From a 4-hour perspective the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and both oscillators (RSI and Stochastic) lack clear direction so a technical prediction is difficult to be accurate. The Euro will be possibly affected today by more discussions between Greek and Eurogroup officials so we recommend increased caution throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The German IFO Business Climate will offer insights into the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current and future economic conditions. The scheduled time of release is 9:00 am GMT, the anticipated number is 107.4 and usually values which exceed analysts’ expectations are beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a change of -0.3% Friday and this weakened the Pound allowing the pair to move below short-term support.



Technical Outlook
After moving below 1.5420 the pair approached the level again and at the moment it shows rejection. This makes us believe that the next move will be a descent towards 1.5340 support; however an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index would decrease the chances of a break of this support. Also, a move above 1.5420 short-term resistance would invalidate this scenario and would take the pair into 1.5460.

Fundamental Outlook
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will release at 11:00 am GMT the Realized Sales which is a survey of about 125 companies and is focused towards their sales volume. A higher number indicates increased economic activity and is usually beneficial for the Pound. The forecast is 42, an increase from last month’s 39 but under normal circumstances the release has a mild impact unless the actual number shows a big difference compared to the forecast.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.02.24 :Forex News: Breakout imminent. Speeches and testimonies hold the headlines

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value below analysts’ expectations and the euro weakened as a result. However the pair remained in ranging mode and neither support nor resistance was broken.



Technical Outlook
A breakout is imminent but the direction remains uncertain; the important levels for short-term price action remain 1.1440 as resistance and 1.1270 as support. A break of either of them will mark the end of the ranging period but since price came in close vicinity of support and couldn’t break it, we expect a bounce higher which can find resistance at 1.1440. However, until a clear break occurs, our view remains neutral on this pair.

Fundamental Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak today at the official unveiling of the 20 Euro banknote. The event takes place in Frankfurt at 2:00 pm GMT and is followed at 3:00 pm GMT by Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony is likely to generate more volatility, depending on her altitude and answers. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to show a drop to 99.6 from the previous 102.9. Consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending so a higher than anticipated value will strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British CBI Realized Sales posted a surprisingly low value of 1 while analysts’ expected 42. This initially generated Pound weakness but a remarkable reversal occurred soon after, without any apparent reason.



Technical Outlook
After bouncing at 1.5420 the pair headed into the support located at 1.5340 as expected, but here a near perfect bounce occurred, followed by a climb of more than 100 pips. Currently the bulls are trying to break 1.5460 and if they succeed, the door will be open for an extended move into 1.5540 resistance. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, a fact which may hinder further bullish movement for the time being. The first potential support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the British Inflation Report Hearings take place. Bank of England Governor and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on economic growth and inflation. The hearings last a few hours during which volatility may increase and sharp moves can occur so caution is recommended. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]

[pasfx]

2015.05.27 :Forex News: Traders’ attention shifts towards German inflation and American GDP as bears regain control

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the range it was confined in. American inflation increased as shown by the Core version of the CPI indicator. The Durable Goods Orders also showed an increase, contributing to US Dollar strength.



Technical Outlook
The break of 1.1270 support will play a major role for future price action if the bears can keep the pair below this level. Clearly the recent momentum belongs to the bears and we anticipate further movement south but a re-test of the broken level is very possible, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level, indicating oversold. Our current bias is bearish after brief retracements, with 1.1270 acting as potential resistance and 1.1100 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The focus will shift today towards German inflation data which is released at 1:00 pm GMT. A hefty increase from the previous -1.1% to 0.6% is expected and if this forecast comes true, the euro will most likely strengthen. Half an hour later the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out; the anticipated change is 2.1% while the previous was 2.6%. Although the first version (Advance) is the most important, the Preliminary also has the potential to strongly move the currency; higher percentages are beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

British Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and the event didn’t have a massive impact but the US data generated a sharp fall which broke several support levels.



Technical Outlook
The bulls tried to take price above 1.5540 – 1.5550 resistance but failed to do so and this was a sign that their strength is fading. The pair is now trading comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5460 but 1.5420 is not clearly broken yet. We expect price to move below this level, towards 1.5340 but before that can happen, a retracement higher is needed; adding to this opinion is the position of the Relative Strength Index which is signaling an oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases today so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: [email protected]